On July 26th, 3-year-old Semper Kurry “fell over [a] fallen rival” (DNF) in a race at Gulfstream. Since, the Ralph Ziadie-trained, Lucille Geranis-owned colt has been put to the whip six times (all at Gulfstream or Gulfstream West):
August 16th, 9th of 11, 10+ back
September 1st, 8th of 11, 16+ back
October 30th, 5th of 7, 12+ back
November 19th, 7th of 10, 11+ back
January 1st, “eased,” DNF
…and most recently: February 11th, 10th of 12, 31 lengths back
In all, Semper Kurry has been raced 15 times – all maiden claiming – with 3 DNFs and 10 5th-place or below. What do you suppose the odds are of this horse landing safely?